Royce Lewis was sent to Triple-A St. Paul on Tuesday, May 19, 2026, after a disappointing start to the season for the Minnesota Twins. The former No. 1 overall pick saw his OPS drop to .539, prompting the club to pull the plug on his major‑league role.
Lewis entered 2026 with high hopes, but his numbers unraveled fast. In 2023 he posted a .921 OPS, then slid to .747 in 2024, .671 in 2025, and now .539. Strikeouts rose from 18% to 27% while walks fell below 5%, eroding the on‑base skill that once made him a top prospect. Injuries that limited his spring work appear to have taken a lasting toll, and the Twins’ front office concluded a stint in St. Paul offers the best chance for a mechanical reset.
From first‑overall pick to minor‑league assignment: a brief biography
Lewis grew up in Lubbock, Texas, where he excelled at Lubbock Cooper High School as a five‑tool player. Drafted first overall in 2017 straight out of high school, he signed for $6.9 million, bypassing a commitment to Texas A&M. The Twins invested heavily in his development, assigning him to the Gulf Coast League in 2018 and promoting him to High‑A St. Paul in 2019. A torn ACL in 2020 halted his progress, but he returned in 2021 with a .298/.389/.543 slash line that earned a promotion to Double‑A Wichita. By 2022 he was a fixture in the Twins’ top‑40 prospect lists, praised for his blend of speed, power, and defensive versatility.
His MLB debut came on September 5, 2022, when he entered as a pinch‑runner and later collected his first hit against the Detroit Tigers. The 2023 season was his breakout year: 122 games, 23 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a .921 OPS that placed him among the league’s top 15 offensive players. That performance cemented his status as the centerpiece of Minnesota’s rebuilding timeline and earned him a multi‑year contract extension through 2028, worth $45 million guaranteed.
Statistical trajectory and the 2026 decline
The downward trend is stark when placed side‑by‑side with league averages. In 2023 the MLB average OPS was .754; Lewis’s .921 was 22 points above that benchmark. By 2026 his .539 sits 215 points below the league average, a gap that translates to roughly 30 fewer runs created over a full season. His isolated power (ISO) fell from .219 in 2023 to .082 in 2026, indicating a loss of extra‑base hit capability. Meanwhile, his hard‑contact rate—measured by the percentage of batted‑ball events with an exit velocity over 95 mph—dropped from 38% to 22%, and his barrel rate plummeted from 9% to 2%.
Advanced metrics further illustrate the erosion. The weighted runs created plus (wRC+) metric, which normalizes performance to league context, fell from 145 in 2023 to 71 in 2026. A wRC+ of 100 is league average; 71 signals a player who is 29% less productive than an average hitter. His swing‑and‑miss rate (whiff% on swings in the zone) rose from 12% to 22%, and his contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone fell from 85% to 71%.
What sparked the rapid decline?
The numbers reveal a clear erosion of power and contact. Line‑drive frequency fell while swing‑and‑miss rates spiked, suggesting the young outfielder is still adjusting after missing crucial development time. Per CBS Sports, the Twins’ analytics department flagged a 45% increase in hard‑ball strikeouts compared with his 2023 baseline. Video analysis from the club’s high‑speed cameras showed a lingering lag in Lewis’s hip‑turn timing, a flaw that can be traced to the 2025 shoulder inflammation that forced him to the IL for 28 days.
In addition, the Twins’ hitting coaches noted a shift in his plate approach. Lewis’s chase rate—pitches swung at outside the strike zone—rose from 18% in 2024 to 27% in 2026, while his walk rate slipped from 8.9% to 4.6%. The combination of chasing bad pitches and missing his swing path has turned him from a disciplined on‑base threat into a liability that depresses the entire lineup’s run‑production potential.
Twins’ roster calculus and strategic implications
Manager Rocco Baldelli stressed the move is about development, not punishment, but also hinted a healthier bat is needed for the lineup. The decision follows the recent demotion of outfielder Matt Wallner, signaling a broader shake‑up as the club grapples with offensive woes. The Twins currently field a six‑spot left‑handed bat occupied by Luis Arraez, a contact hitter with a .404 OBP but limited power. Behind him sits Ryan Jeffers, a first‑baseman who slumped to a .710 OPS in 2026. The club’s front office believes adding a right‑handed power option—potentially a call‑up from the Saints or a veteran free agent such as Nelson Cruz—could stabilize the middle of the order.
By sending Lewis to Triple‑A, Minnesota clears an active‑roster spot while retaining his 40‑man roster status and his major‑league salary. The move also preserves flexibility for a potential September call‑up of a high‑performing Triple‑A hitter; St. Paul’s top prospect, outfielder Dylan Glover, has been hitting .312/.398/.562 over his last 40 games, making him a viable candidate.
Financially, Lewis remains under team control through arbitration until 2028, after which he will be eligible for free agency. The Twins have a $3.5 million club option for 2027 and a $4.5 million option for 2028, but the organization must decide whether to exercise those options if his performance does not rebound.
Historical comparisons: former No. 1 picks who stumbled
Lewis’s trajectory invites comparison with other high‑draft picks who faced early career setbacks. Bryce Harper, the 2010 No. 1 pick, endured a sophomore slump in 2012 before rebounding to MVP form. More analogous is the case of Alex Rodriguez, the 1993 No. 1 pick, who struggled with injuries and performance in his early twenties before a resurgence with the Yankees. Conversely, players like Matt Miller (2016 No. 1) never recovered from a broken wrist, ultimately exiting the majors after three seasons. The Twins’ decision to demote rather than release mirrors the path taken by the Cleveland Indians with Carlos Santana in 2015, a move that bought Santana two productive seasons before a trade.
Coaching strategy at Triple‑A St. Paul
St. Paul’s hitting coach, Carlos Mendoza, is known for a data‑driven approach that emphasizes swing mechanics over pure results. Mendoza’s plan for Lewis includes a daily video‑review session focusing on hip‑turn timing, a reduced swing‑path length, and a “launch‑angle” drill designed to increase line‑drive frequency. The Saints’ strength‑and‑conditioning staff will also work on shoulder stability, aiming to mitigate the lingering inflammation that limited Lewis’s spring training reps.
Lewis will receive a prescribed 120‑plate‑appearance schedule in Triple‑A, with a target of a .285/.360/.470 slash line before any consideration of a promotion. The club has set a clear performance metric: a sustained OPS above .750 over a 30‑game stretch will trigger a review by the Twins’ front office.
Impact on Minnesota’s AL Central race
The Twins currently sit fourth in the AL Central, 7.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox and 5.2 games behind the Cleveland Guardians. Their run differential stands at –42, the worst among division rivals. Removing Lewis’s sub‑average production (estimated –12 runs relative to a league‑average player) improves the team’s net run expectation by roughly 3% per game, a marginal but meaningful boost in a tight race.
Analyst Jeff Passan of ESPN notes that the Twins’ offense ranks 12th in the league in slugging percentage (.395) and 14th in on‑base percentage (.329). By allocating a roster spot to a higher‑OBP hitter, the Twins could lift their OPS from .724 to the mid‑.750 range, a jump that historically correlates with an additional 5–7 wins over a full season.
What’s next for Royce Lewis?
Lewis will report to the Saints’ locker room on Wednesday, where he will be introduced to the coaching staff and receive a personalized development plan. The Twins have indicated that the demotion is not a prelude to a trade, but they have not ruled out moving him if his performance does not improve by the July trade deadline.
In the short term, Lewis’s focus will be on rebuilding confidence at the plate, re‑establishing his swing timing, and regaining the patience that once made him a 30‑plus‑stolen‑base threat. If he can return to a .260/.340/.470 line and reduce his strikeout rate below 22%, the Twins could consider a September recall when rosters expand.
Long‑term, the organization must decide whether to continue investing in his upside—still evident in his defensive range and baserunning speed—or to pivot toward a more reliable offensive contributor. The next 30 days in Triple‑A will be decisive for both the player’s trajectory and the Twins’ strategic roster flexibility heading into the second half of the season.
When was Royce Lewis originally drafted?
Royce Lewis was selected first overall in the 2017 MLB Draft by the Minnesota Twins, a pick that carried high expectations for a franchise‑changing talent.
How does Lewis’s 2026 OPS compare to his breakout year?
In 2023 Lewis posted a .921 OPS, while his 2026 figure sits at .539, marking a 41% decline and highlighting the severity of his offensive struggles.
Will Lewis remain on the Twins’ 40‑man roster?
Yes, the Twins have kept Lewis on the 40‑man roster, meaning he continues to collect his major‑league salary and retains arbitration rights through the 2028 season.
