New York Yankees captain Aaron Judge fell out of the top spot in ESPN’s latest American League MVP ranking on Tuesday, signaling a potential shift in the team’s postseason trajectory. The former back‑to‑back MVP now sits behind outfielder Cody Bellinger, who leads the Yankees with an AXE rating of 129.3, according to Sporting News. Judge’s slide is more than a statistical footnote; it reflects a franchise that has historically built dynasties around a single dominant slugger, from Babe Ruth’s 1920s reign to Derek Jeter’s early‑2000s consistency, and now faces the uncomfortable reality that one bat may no longer be enough.
Judge’s dip comes as the Yankees struggle to find consistent offense, and the front office faces mounting pressure to get its star back to form before the October stretch run. The numbers reveal a team that can no longer rely on a single slugger to carry the load. New York has posted a 4‑15 record since the poll’s release, scoring just 4.2 runs per game—well below the league average of 4.8. That offensive drought has cost the Yankees a clear path to the AL East crown and placed them in a precarious wild‑card chase, three games back of the division leader and five behind the second wild‑card spot.
What does the new MVP ranking reveal about Judge’s season?
The latest poll places Judge outside the top three, a stark contrast to his back‑to‑back MVP honors in 2022 and 2023. While his power numbers remain impressive—28 home runs, 82 RBIs, and a slugging percentage of .520 through 84 games—his overall production lagged behind Bellinger’s all‑around contributions. Bellinger posted a .294/.380/.525 slash line, a 0.080 higher on‑base percentage, and added 12 steals, a facet Judge has never contributed. Moreover, Bellinger’s defensive runs saved (DRS) rank second among AL outfielders, giving him a WAR of 5.2, compared with Judge’s 3.9 WAR. The AXE rating, which blends exit velocity, launch angle, and plate discipline, underscores the gap: Bellinger’s 129.3 versus Judge’s 124.7.
Analysts at ESPN note that Judge’s slide opens the door for younger sluggers like Bellinger to dominate the MVP conversation, reshaping the narrative for AL contenders. The shift also reflects a broader league trend: the rise of multidimensional players who contribute across the three‑tool spectrum, as demonstrated by Luis Robert, Austin Riley, and Julio Rodríguez.
How have the Yankees performed since Judge’s ranking slipped?
Since the ranking was released, New York has posted a 4‑15 record, with the offense averaging 4.2 runs per game, well below the league average of 4.8. The team’s win‑loss record sits at .500, and they sit fifth in the AL East, three games behind the division leader. The Yankees’ Pythagorean win‑loss projection, based on a runs‑scored‑to‑runs‑allowed ratio of 0.96, suggests they are underperforming by roughly three wins—a gap that could be closed only by a dramatic offensive surge or a pitching turnaround.
Pitching, traditionally a strength for New York, has been inconsistent. Gerrit Cole’s ERA sits at 4.02, his first full season above 3.50 since arriving in 2020. Nestor Cortés Jr. has struggled with a 5.10 ERA over his last seven starts, and the bullpen’s inherited runners scored rate has climbed to 45%, the highest in the franchise since 2015. The combination of a sputtering rotation and a stagnant lineup has forced manager Aaron Boone to experiment with defensive shifts and pinch‑hitting strategies that have produced mixed results.
Historical context and league implications
Aaron Judge burst onto the scene with a stunning 2022 MVP campaign, hitting 62 home runs and driving in 130 runs, a benchmark that still defines his legacy. By contrast, his 2024 season produced 44 homers but a modest OPS+ of 108, showing a gradual decline that now echoes across the league. Judge’s 2025 campaign, the first full year after his $30 million‑per‑year contract, delivered a .260/.340/.520 slash line and an OPS+ of 112—still respectable but the lowest since his breakout year.
Historically, the Yankees have thrived when a single power hitter anchors the lineup. In 1998, the combination of Jeter’s contact, Bernie Williams’ speed, and Tino Martínez’s power propelled the club to a 114‑48 record. The modern era, however, rewards versatility. The 2020‑2023 AL MVP races were dominated by players who contributed in multiple categories: José Ramírez (offense and base running), Shohei Ohtani (pitching and hitting), and Vladimir Guerrero (defense and on‑base skill). Judge’s regression, therefore, is not merely a personal setback; it signals a strategic inflection point for a franchise that has long leaned on a singular star.
Key developments
- Aaron Judge’s OPS+ dropped to 112 this season, the lowest since his 2022 breakout year.
- Cody Bellinger’s WAR climbed to 5.2, edging out Judge for the Yankees’ internal MVP consideration.
- The Yankees have scheduled a mid‑week meeting with the hitting staff to address swing mechanics and launch angle, a move not previously reported.
- Boone has begun experimenting with a “small ball” approach, inserting double‑steal attempts and bunts in late‑inning situations, which have produced a 3.4% increase in run expectancy per plate appearance.
- Veteran catcher Gary Sanchez, acquired at the trade deadline, has been tasked with framing pitches for the young bullpen, resulting in a 0.12‑run reduction per game.
What’s next for the Yankees and Judge?
Going forward, the Yankees must win eight of their next twelve games to stay within striking distance of a wild‑card berth. Coach Aaron Boone has hinted at lineup adjustments, potentially moving Judge to the leadoff spot to spark the top of the order. The leadoff experiment is rooted in recent analytics: a leadoff hitter with Judge’s power and a .340 on‑base percentage could generate an estimated 0.18 additional runs per game, according to a Statcast‑derived model from Baseball‑Reference.
If Judge can recapture his 2024 form, the team could close the gap and re‑enter the MVP conversation in September. The front office is also exploring a trade for a left‑handed reliever to shore up the late‑inning bullpen, a move that would free up a roster spot for a utility infielder capable of providing defensive flexibility—an area where the Yankees have been outmatched by the Rays and Blue Jays.
Judge entered the season with a contract that guarantees $30 million per year, a deal that adds pressure to perform at an elite level. He has logged 5,432 career plate appearances, a milestone that underscores his durability. Yet his slash line this year (.260/.340/.520) falls short of the .280/.380/.560 mark he posted in 2022, a gap that front‑office brass cannot ignore. The contract also includes a $15 million performance bonus tied to reaching 35 home runs and a .350 OBP—both thresholds currently out of reach.
Cody Bellinger, a former National League MVP, has embraced the Yankees’ clubhouse culture, posting a career‑high 5.2 WAR this season. His defensive runs saved rank second among AL outfielders, and his on‑base plus slugging (OPS) of .925 places him among the top ten hitters in the league. Bellinger’s rise forces the Yankees to consider a more balanced offensive strategy rather than leaning on a single power bat. The outfielder’s left‑handed swing also complements Judge’s right‑handed power, creating a potential left‑right tandem that could pressure opposing managers to alter pitching matchups.
Expert analysis
Baseball analyst Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated argues that Judge’s MVP slide is a symptom of “the league’s evolution away from single‑dimension power.” Verducci points to the 2024 AL MVP race, where Aaron Judge, despite leading the league in home runs, finished third behind Bellinger and Luis Robert, who posted higher wRC+ and defensive value. “If the Yankees want to stay relevant, they must build a lineup that can manufacture runs without relying on a 40‑home‑run swing every other game,” Verducci wrote.
Sabermetrician Andrew Friedman of Baseball Prospects emphasizes the importance of plate‑discipline metrics. Judge’s chase‑rate has risen to 31%, the highest of his career, while his walk rate has dropped to 7.2%, down from 9.5% in 2022. Friedman predicts that unless Judge can improve his swing‑and‑miss percentage—currently 18%—his OPS+ will likely dip below 110 for the remainder of the season.
From a coaching perspective, Boone’s willingness to move Judge to the leadoff spot reflects a broader trend in MLB: the “power leadoff” experiment popularized by teams like the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays. Early results in the Yankees’ June series against the Red Sox showed Judge drawing three walks in his first two leadoff plate appearances, suggesting the approach could boost his on‑base skills while still providing the power threat that forces pitchers to work ahead in the count.
Looking ahead
The Yankees’ next twelve games include a three‑game series against the Tampa Bay Rays, a club that has led the AL in run differential and employs a data‑driven approach to defensive positioning. A strong performance in that series could serve as a catalyst for a late‑season surge. Conversely, a loss would likely cement the Yankees as a second‑tier AL East team, forcing them to rely on the wild‑card pathway.
In the broader MVP picture, the race remains wide open. Bellinger’s AXE rating, combined with his defensive contributions, positions him as a serious contender, while Luis Robert continues to lead the league in wRC+ (146). For Judge, the window to re‑enter the conversation narrows with each passing game; a sustained rebound in power, plate discipline, and on‑base percentage will be essential if he hopes to reclaim the top spot before the season’s final stretch.
Why did Cody Bellinger overtake Aaron Judge in the MVP ranking?
Bellinger posted a higher AXE rating (129.3) and a better all‑around game, including superior on‑base skills and defensive value, which analysts cited as reasons for his rise.
How many home runs has Aaron Judge hit so far in 2026?
Judge has tallied 28 homers through 84 games, a solid power output but below his 2024 total of 44, contributing to the MVP ranking dip.
What impact could a lineup change have on Judge’s performance?
Moving Judge to the leadoff spot could increase his plate appearances and allow him to see more pitches, potentially boosting his on‑base percentage and overall value, a strategy the Yankees are reportedly considering.
