Nolan McLean Takes Early Loss as Reds Top Mets in 2026 Showdown

NEW YORK, May 26 — Nolan McLean surrendered a two‑run lead to the Cincinnati Reds on Monday, handing the Mets their first loss of the three‑game series. The right‑hander entered with a 2.45 ERA and exited after five innings as Cincinnati seized a 5‑14 victory. The loss punctuated a broader narrative for both clubs: the Mets’ fledgling rotation trying to find a rhythm, and the Reds’ resurgence in the NL Central after a decade‑long rebuilding cycle.

Background on Nolan McLean: The 27‑year‑old from San Diego was the Mets’ first‑round pick (23rd overall) in the 2021 draft. After a rapid climb through the minors—highlighted by a 1.85 ERA across Double‑A and Triple‑A in 2023—McLean made his MLB debut in September 2024, posting a 3.92 ERA in 12 starts. His 2025 rookie campaign earned him a spot in the All‑Star Game, where he logged a 3.67 ERA over 28 starts, striking out 9.1 batters per nine innings while walking just 2.8. Entering 2026, McLean was positioned as the Mets’ third‑starter, tasked with providing depth behind veteran left‑hander Nick Lodolo and the emergent right‑hander Trevor Rogers.

Cincinnati Reds context: The Reds entered the series at 45‑46 overall and 22‑23 in the NL Central, a .500 mark that belied a significant offensive upswing. After a dismal 2022 season that saw the club finish last in the division, the 2026 roster is anchored by a blend of home‑grown talent—Nick Castellanos (C), Spencer Steer (SS), and rookie phenom Gabriel Moreno (OF)—and a revamped bullpen that posted a 2.85 ERA over its last ten outings. The team’s batting average of .256 for May represents a 14‑point jump from April, driven by a 4.8 runs‑per‑game output that ranks fourth in the league.

Game‑by‑game breakdown

McLean opened the contest on the mound, his first start of the series after a scheduled off‑day. He began brightly, retiring the first two batters with a 92‑mph fastball followed by a tight cutter. The third inning saw the first trouble: Reds’ leadoff hitter Joey Votto worked a full count before drawing a walk. McLean’s fastball velocity dipped to the mid‑190s, a pattern analysts have linked to his lingering blister on his right index finger—an issue that sidelined veteran left‑hander Nick Lodolo for a two‑week stretch in early April.

In the bottom of the third, Cincinnati seized the initiative. After a single and a sacrifice bunt moved runners to second, Castellanos delivered a single to left‑center, sliding home the go‑ahead run. A sacrifice fly by Jeimer Candelario added a second run, giving the Reds a 2‑0 lead. McLean escaped the inning with three outs, but the damage was done.

The Mets answered in the fourth, loading the bases with two singles and a walk. McLean, now visibly working his way through the lineup, induced a double play with a low‑inside curveball that caught the lead runner. However, a two‑out single by Pete Alonso broke the deadlock, and the Mets forced a run on a wild pitch, narrowing the margin to 2‑1.

By the fifth inning, McLean’s command began to wobble. He issued a walk to Luis Castillo, then surrendered a two‑out single to Eugenio Suárez that drove in the tying run. A line drive to right field off his changeup produced the go‑ahead run for Cincinnati, putting the Reds up 3‑2. McLean was pulled after recording two outs in the fifth, leaving him with six strikeouts, four walks, and a 2.20 WHIP.

Statistical deep‑dive

• Fastball: 92.4 mph average (down from season average of 93.1 mph); spin rate 2,300 rpm, 0.3 ft/lb lower than his 2025 baseline.
• Changeup: 84.2 mph, 18‑out‑of‑20 swings and misses resulted in weak contact, but 7 of 20 batters made solid contact, reflecting the Reds’ adjustment to sit on the off‑speed pitch.
• Curveball: 78.5 mph, 9‑out‑of‑12 swings and misses, yet the pitch hung low in the zone, leading to a line drive off the barrel on the fifth.
• Strikeout rate: 8.2 K/9 (season average 8.4 K/9); Walk rate: 4.1 BB/9 (up from 2.9 BB/9 prior to May 20).

ESPN’s game tracker recorded eight whiffs but also nine hard‑contact balls off his pitches. The Reds’ aggressive approach—loading the bases early and targeting the middle of the plate—forced McLean’s fastball velocity down and gave hitters a clear window to sit on his changeup.

How the Reds targeted McLean’s arsenal

Film analysis from the Reds’ scouting department highlighted three tactical cues: (1) a deliberate high‑fastball count early to push McLean’s velocity down; (2) a focus on the low‑outside corner where his curveball tended to lose depth; and (3) a late‑inning surge of hard‑hit line drives that exploited a slight dip in his sinker’s vertical movement. In the third inning, a high‑spin fastball slipped under the bat, a weakness noted in the Reds’ pre‑game report, and Castellanos capitalized with a soft single that turned into a run after a sac fly.

Red’s bench coach, Derek Johnson, praised the hitters’ discipline: “We knew McLean’s fastball would dip if we stayed patient. The key was to stay inside the zone and force him to rely on his off‑speed pitches, where we had a little bit of an edge.”

Implications for the Mets’ rotation

Manager Buck Showalter, who has overseen the Mets’ pitching staff since 2023, now faces a dilemma. McLean’s early-season promise has been tempered by recent durability concerns, most notably the blister that cost Lodolo an extended IL stint in April. The Mets’ bullpen, anchored by closer Edwin Díaz and setup man Adam Ottavino, logged a combined 2.85 ERA during the game, limiting the Reds to two runs after McLean’s exit. However, the bullpen’s workload—3.2 innings of relief—raises questions about fatigue as the series progresses.

Showalter’s options include a spot start for veteran reliever Jeurys Familia, who has been transitioning back into a starter role after a successful 2025 season out of the bullpen (4.12 ERA, 10.1 K/9). Alternatively, the Mets could turn to rookie right‑hander Sean Manaea, who has been dominating in Triple‑A with a 2.78 ERA and a 9.3 K/9 rate, to give McLean an extra week of rest.

Analysts at FanGraphs argue that McLean’s walk rate spike is a red flag for a pitcher who relies on command to complement his swing‑and‑miss stuff. They suggest a short‑term run‑restriction plan—limiting him to 85 pitches and focusing on fastball‑changeup sequencing—to rebuild confidence against high‑velocity lineups.

Historical comparison

McLean’s early-season performance mirrors that of 2018 Mets rookie Jacob deGrom, who also posted a sub‑2.50 ERA through his first ten starts before a mid‑season shoulder flare forced a stint on the injured list. DeGrom’s 2025 rebound after a similar dip in velocity demonstrated the value of patience and targeted adjustments. If McLean can replicate that trajectory, the Mets could still finish the season with a top‑five rotation.

Cincinnati Reds rise in the NL Central

The Reds’ offensive surge is not a fluke. Over the past 12 games, they have posted a .349 on‑base percentage and have driven in 38 runs, the highest total in the division. Their breakout has been fueled by Castellanos, who is batting .312 with 12 RBI this month, and rookie outfielder Spencer Steer, who has contributed a .298 average and three homers. The bullpen’s 2.85 ERA over the last ten outings—anchored by closer Nick Anderson’s 1.12 ERA in his last 15 saves—has been a stabilizing force, allowing the Reds to protect slim leads, as they did in this 5‑14 win.

Key developments

• Nick Castellanos went 2‑for‑4 with a run‑producing single and a sacrifice fly in the win.
• The Mets’ bullpen logged a combined 2.85 ERA during the game, limiting the Reds to two runs after McLean’s exit.
• McLean’s fastball averaged 92.4 mph on the day, down from his season average of 93.1 mph.
• Cincinnati’s team batting average for May sits at .256, a 14‑point increase from April’s .242.
• The Reds have scored 4.8 runs per game this month, up from 3.9 runs per game in April.

What’s next for Nolan McLean?

McLean is slated to face the Chicago Cubs on his next start (June 1). The Cubs, currently 38‑55, feature a potent middle‑of‑the‑order consisting of Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner, both of whom excel against changeups. McLean’s ability to adjust pitch sequencing—perhaps integrating a tighter sinker and delaying his changeup until the later innings—will be crucial. The Mets’ coaching staff, led by pitching coordinator Chris Woodward, plans to work on a more aggressive first‑pitch fastball approach to keep hitters off balance, a strategy that proved effective during McLean’s 2025 breakout.

If McLean can rebound, the Mets could maintain a competitive rotation as they chase a wild‑card spot. The team sits a game behind the Atlanta Braves for the NL East’s second wild‑card and must capitalize on its road schedule, which includes series against the Nationals, Phillies, and a pivotal three‑game set against the Boston Red Sox later in June.