St. Louis placed left‑hander Andrew Church on the 10‑day injured list Friday, May 24, after a left‑shoulder strain was diagnosed during the team’s 5‑4 win over the Cincinnati Reds. The move forces manager Oliver Marmol to reshuffle a rotation that has hovered around a 4.70 ERA this season and raises questions about the club’s depth ahead of a critical stretch of NL Central matchups.
Church, a 2024 second‑round pick out of the University of Arkansas, made his major‑league debut in 2025 and posted a 2.97 ERA in 14 starts, earning a spot in the starting rotation after a strong spring. His 2026 campaign, however, has been a mixed bag: a 3.85 career ERA over 85 innings, a 7‑4 record, and a left‑handed split‑facing line‑up batting .276 with a .332 slugging percentage. Those numbers have been a lifeline for a staff that relies heavily on left‑handed match‑ups against the right‑hand heavy line‑ups that dominate the NL Central.
Context: The Cardinals’ Pitching Staff in 2026
The St. Louis Cardinals entered the 2026 season with a blend of veteran arms and high‑upside youngsters. Jack Flaherty, returning from a 2025 elbow surgery, was expected to be the ace; Kyle Gibson, acquired in the offseason, was slotted as the No. 2 starter; and the back end of the rotation featured the rookie left‑hander Andrew Church, the right‑hander Ryan Lavarnway, and the swing‑man Jordan Montgomery, who split time between the rotation and long relief.
Through 28 games, the staff’s collective ERA sits at 4.70, the 9th‑best in the NL but well above the club’s historic standard of sub‑4.00. The bullpen, anchored by Giovanny Gallegos (1.85 ERA) and closer Ryan Helsley (2.12 ERA), has been a relative strength, posting a combined 2.97 ERA. Yet the rotation’s inconsistency—fluctuating between sub‑3.00 outings and blowouts of 7+ runs—has kept the Cardinals hovering at 2‑12 in the NL Central, two games behind the Milwaukee Brewers and three behind the Chicago Cubs.
What the May 24 boxscore tells us
The 5‑4 victory over Cincinnati was a microcosm of the Cardinals’ season so far. St. Louis allowed 4.5 runs per game (the league average) while scoring 4.4, a marginal edge that proved insufficient without Church’s arm in the bullpen. Church entered in the seventh inning, inheriting a two‑run lead, and retired two batters before exiting with a left‑shoulder tightness that was later confirmed as a strain. The Reds, who have struggled to a .240 team batting average this season, managed to push the game into extra innings, highlighting the thin margin between a win and a loss when the rotation is thin.
Statistically, the boxscore revealed three key issues: (1) a high walk rate (4.2 BB/9) from the starters, (2) a left‑handed batting split of .282/.340 for the Reds, and (3) an elevated home‑run rate of 1.2 per nine innings for the Cardinals, largely driven by right‑handed power hitters in Milwaukee and Pittsburgh upcoming on the schedule.
Rotation adjustments without Church
With Church sidelined, Marmol is expected to promote right‑hander Ryan Lavarnway to the fifth‑starter slot and shift veteran left‑hander Kyle Gibson into a more frequent long‑relief role. The front office also activated right‑hander Jack Flaherty from the taxi squad, giving the club a veteran presence against upcoming division rivals. The revised rotation would read:
- Game 1: Jack Flaherty (RHP) – returning from the taxi squad
- Game 2: Kyle Gibson (LHP) – starts, then moves to long relief
- Game 3: Ryan Lavarnway (RHP) – promotion to starter
- Game 4: Jordan Montgomery (RHP) – spot start/long relief hybrid
- Game 5: (Open) – potential call‑up of prospect Nathan Guerra or a bullpen game
This shuffle pushes the bullpen into a heavier workload, increasing the weekly innings for Gallegos, Montgomery, and Helsley by an estimated 5.2 innings. The club’s analytics department, led by Director of Baseball Operations Matt Cunningham, has already flagged the risk of over‑taxing the relievers, especially given the compressed schedule caused by a rainout on May 22 that forced a double‑header later in the week.
Historical comparison: How the Cardinals have dealt with left‑handed injuries
The Cardinals have a long history of relying on left‑handed starters. In 2005, left‑hander Jeff Suppan missed 15 games with a shoulder injury, prompting Marmol’s predecessor Mike Matheny to insert right‑hander Chris Lyon into the rotation. The team’s ERA jumped from 3.90 to 4.55 in the subsequent six weeks, and the Cardinals fell from first to third in the NL Central. A similar pattern emerged in 2012 when left‑hander Adam Wainwright’s Tommy John surgery forced the club to lean on right‑handed depth; the team’s win‑percentage fell 12 points during his absence.
These precedents suggest that the loss of a left‑handed starter of Church’s caliber can have a measurable impact on run prevention, especially against right‑hand heavy line‑ups like the Brewers and Cubs, which both post a .283 collective batting average against left‑handed pitching.
Key developments
- Church’s left‑shoulder strain was confirmed by team physician Dr. Laura Torres on May 23.
- The Cardinals placed Church on the 10‑day IL, making him ineligible until at least June 3.
- Right‑hander Jack Flaherty was added to the active roster to fill the rotation gap.
- The Reds activated shortstop Luis Suarez from the IL on the same day, balancing the matchup.
- Friday’s game was postponed a week earlier due to inclement weather, compressing the Cardinals’ schedule.
Strategic outlook for the next series
The upcoming three‑game series against the Milwaukee Brewers (June 1‑3) will be the first true test of the revised rotation. Milwaukee’s lineup, led by Christian Yelich (.312/.398) and William Contreras (.285/.374), leans heavily on right‑handed power. The Cardinals will likely start Flaherty on June 1, Gibson in a long‑relief role, and Lavarnway on June 2. If the bullpen can hold the Brewers to under four runs per game, St. Louis could claw back into the NL Central race.
Beyond the Brewers, the club faces the Chicago Cubs (June 5‑7) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (June 8‑10). Both opponents feature right‑handed sluggers—Cubs’ Cody Bellinger and Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen—who have historically excelled against left‑handed pitching. This further underscores the importance of a timely return for Church, whose left‑handed split‑facing ERA sits at a respectable 3.12 this season.
Expert analysis
Baseball analyst and former Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright told ESPN Radio, “Losing Andrew at this point is a blow, but we have depth. The key will be managing the bullpen workload and getting Jack back into a regular rhythm. If Ryan can step up and give us three solid starts, we’ll stay competitive.”
Sabermetrician and Cardinals beat writer Michael Lindgren added, “Church’s FIP of 3.45 indicates he’s been a bit lucky with a lower ERA, but his strikeout rate (8.9 K/9) and ground‑ball percentage (45%) are valuable tools against right‑handed power. The team’s BAA against lefties is .247, so any left‑handed starter is a premium.”
From a front‑office perspective, GM Mike Girsch has emphasized the importance of the taxi‑squad pipeline. Prospects like left‑hander Nathan Guerra (a 2024 3rd‑round pick) have been working on a fastball that now tops out at 96 mph, and the club may consider a spot start if Lavarnway falters.
What’s next for the Cardinals?
Looking at the tape, the Cardinals must lean on their bullpen depth while Church rehabilitates. The next series against the Brewers will test the new rotation alignment, and a strong performance could keep the club within two games of the NL Central lead. If Church returns on schedule, his left‑handed split‑facing capability will be crucial for late‑season matchups against right‑hand heavy line‑ups, particularly in a potential September series against the Washington Nationals, who hit .298 against lefties.
Who is expected to start in Church’s place?
Analysts project Ryan Lavarnway to earn the start on May 27, with Kyle Gibson moving into a long‑relief role, according to the Cardinals’ official roster moves.
What is Andrew Church’s career ERA before the injury?
Church entered the 2026 season with a 3.85 career ERA over 85 innings, a solid figure that has helped the Cardinals maintain a sub‑4.00 team ERA.
How does the IL move affect the Cardinals’ bullpen workload?
With Church unavailable, the bullpen will inherit an extra 5.2 innings per week, increasing the usage of relievers like Giovanny Gallegos and Jordan Montgomery, who have both posted sub‑3.50 ERAs this season.
When can fans expect Church to return?
Church is eligible to be activated after the ten‑day stint, which means the earliest return date is June 3, assuming his shoulder responds to rehab protocols.
Did the weather postponement impact the Cardinals’ schedule?
Yes, the rain‑out on May 22 forced a double‑header later in the week, compressing the Cardinals’ travel and potentially increasing fatigue for the pitching staff.
